To the Special Minister of State

Notification of Determination

Section 49 Certificate – Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 – 2023

I, Tom Rogers, Electoral Commissioner, hereby certify that:

Pursuant to section 46 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (the Electoral Act), I have on Thursday 27 July 2023 ascertained the number of the people of the Commonwealth, States and Territories, and those numbers are as follows:

Note: 1) The number of people of the Australian Capital Territory includes the population of the Australian Capital Territory, the Jervis Bay Territory and Norfolk Island.

 2) The number of people of the Northern Territory includes the population of the Northern Territory, the Territory of Christmas Island, and the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Pursuant to section 48 of the Electoral Act, I have on Thursday 27 July 2023 determined the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the States and Territories at a general election to be as follows:

As required by section 49 of the Electoral Act, the following tables provide details of the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician, the adjustments made to the statistical information supplied by the Australian Statistician, calculations involved in arriving at those adjusted numbers, and the calculations involved in the making of the determination of the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the States and Territories at a general election. 

1. Reference date

The 2022 federal election was held on Saturday 21 May 2022.

In the 47th Parliament, the first meeting of the House of Representatives was held on Tuesday 26 July 2022.

The reference day is Thursday 27 July 2023.

2.      Number of the people of the States and Territories as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

This ascertainment has been made using statistics supplied to the Electoral Commissioner by the Australian Statistician on 15 June 2023 in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act and published in National, state and territory population, December Quarter 2022 on 15 June 2023. These supplied statistics have been reproduced in Table 12.

Table 1: Number of the people of the States and Territories as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Note:  1) Pursuant to section 38A of the Electoral Act, the Australian Capital Territory includes the Jervis Bay Territory.

3.      The population quota

To determine the number of members of the House of Representatives each state and territory is entitled to, the Electoral Commissioner is required to calculate the population quota using the following formula:

Table 2: Number of the people of the Commonwealth as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner

Note:  1) Populations of the States, as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner, is in Table 1.

2) Pursuant to section 45 of the Electoral Act, the number of the people of the Commonwealth does not include the people of the Territories.

Table 3: Population quota

Note: 1) The formula for the population quota is set out in paragraph 48(2)(a) of the Electoral Act.

 2) Number of the people of the Commonwealth, as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner, is in Table 2.

4.      Number of members for the states

To calculate the number of members of the House of Representatives for a state, the ascertained number of people of the state is divided by the population quota, and the result rounded to the nearest whole number.

Table 4: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which each State is entitled to

Note:  1) Populations of the States, as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner, are in Table 1.

2) The population quota is calculated in Table 3.

3) The formula to calculate the number of members for a State is set out in paragraph 48(2)(b) of the Electoral Act.

4) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2)(b) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.

 5) Section 24 of the Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act specifies the requirements for the composition of the House of Representatives, requiring that ‘… five members at least shall be chosen in each Original State’. Original States are defined in section 6 as meaning ‘… such States are parts of the Commonwealth at its establishment’. As Tasmania is an Original State, it is guaranteed a minimum of five members of the House of Representatives.

5.      Number of members for the territories

To calculate the number of members of the House of Representatives for a territory, the ascertained number of people of the territory is divided by the population quota, and the result rounded to the nearest whole number.

Table 5: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which each Territory is entitled to

Note:  1) Populations of the Territories, as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner, are in Table 1.

 2) The population quota is calculated in Table 3.

3) The formula to calculate the number of members for a Territory is set out in sub-section 48(2A) of the Electoral Act.

 4) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(a) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder less than or equal to 0.5, no member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

5) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(b) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder greater than 0.5 and less than one, one member of the House of Representatives is to chosen for that Territory.

6) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(ba) of the Electoral Act, where the result of the division is one or more and less than three, the number of members of members to be chosen is the result of the division, rounded using the harmonic mean in accordance with sub-section 48(2AA) of the Electoral Act. Calculations for the harmonic mean are shown in Tables 10 and 11.

7) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(c) of the Electoral Act, in all other cases where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.

8) Pursuant to sub-section 48(2B) of the Electoral Act, at least one member of the House of Representatives shall be chosen by each of the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory.

9) Pursuant to sub-section 48(2BA) of the Electoral Act, as Norfolk Island is not entitled to a member of the House of Representatives, the population is added to the population of the Australian Capital Territory and the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled is recalculated. See Tables 6 and 7.

10) Pursuant to sub-section 48(2C) of the Electoral Act, as the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Territory of Christmas Island are not entitled to a member of the House of Representatives, the populations of both are added to the population of the Northern Territory and the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Northern Territory is entitled is recalculated. See Tables 8 and 9.

6.      Adjustments for the Australian Capital Territory to incorporate Norfolk Island

Pursuant to sub-section 48(2BA) of the Electoral Act, as Norfolk Island is not entitled to a member of the House of Representatives:

• the ascertainment of the Australian Capital Territory’s and Norfolk Island’s population and determination of the number of members for these Territories are taken to have never been made,
• Norfolk Island is taken to be part of the Australian Capital Territory,
• the number of the people of the Australian Capital Territory is re-ascertained, by adding the number of the people of Norfolk Island to the number of people for the Australian Capital Territory, and
• the Electoral Commissioner uses the newly ascertained number of people of the Australian Capital Territory to determine the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the Australian Capital Territory at a general election.

Table 6: Adjustments to the population of the Australian Capital Territory

Note:  1) Number of people of the Australian Capital Territory and Norfolk Island, as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner, is in Table 1.

To calculate the number of members of the House of Representatives for the Australian Capital Territory, the adjusted ascertained number of people of the Australian Capital Territory is divided by the population quota, and the result rounded to the nearest whole number.

Table 7: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Australian Capital Territory is entitled to

Note:  1) The adjusted population of the Australian Capital Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 6.

2) The population quota is calculated in Table 3.

3) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(a) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder less than or equal to 0.5, no member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

4) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(b) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder greater than 0.5 and less than one, one member of the House of Representatives is to chosen for that Territory.

5) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(ba) of the Electoral Act, where the result of the division is one or more and less than three, the number of members of members to be chosen is the result of the division, rounded using the harmonic mean in accordance with sub-section 48(2AA) of the Electoral Act. Calculations for the harmonic mean are shown in Tables 10 and 11.

6) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(c) of the Electoral Act, in all other cases where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.

7) Pursuant to sub-section 48(2B) of the Electoral Act, at least one member of the House of Representatives shall be chosen by the Australian Capital Territory.

7.      Adjustments for the Northern Territory to incorporate Christmas Island and Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Pursuant to sub-section 48(2C) of the Electoral Act, where the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and/or the Territory of Christmas Island is not entitled to a member of the House of Representatives provides:

• the ascertainment of the Northern Territory’s and either or both of the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Territory of Christmas Island’s populations and determination of the number of members for these Territories are taken to have never been made,
• either or both of the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Territory of Christmas Island are taken to be part of the Northern Territory,
• the number of the people of the Northern Territory is re-ascertained, with the number of people of the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and/or the Territory of Christmas Island being added to that of the Northern Territory, and
• the Electoral Commissioner uses the newly ascertained number of people of the Northern Territory to determine the number of members of the House of Representatives to be chosen in the Northern Territory at a general election.

Table 8: Adjustments to the population of the Northern Territory

Note:  1) The number of people of the Northern Territory, the Territory of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and the Territory of Christmas Island, as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner, is in Table 1.

To calculate the number of members of the House of Representatives for the Northern Territory, the adjusted ascertained number of people of the Northern Territory is divided by the population quota, and the result rounded to the nearest whole number.

Table 9: Calculation of the number of members of the House of Representatives to which the Northern Territory is entitled to

Note:  1) The adjusted population of the Northern Territory as ascertained by the Electoral Commissioner is in Table 8.

2) The population quota is calculated in Table 3.

3) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(a) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder less than or equal to 0.5, no member of the House of Representatives is to be chosen for that Territory.

4) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(b) of the Electoral Act, where there is a remainder greater than 0.5 and less than one, one member of the House of Representatives is to chosen for that Territory.

5) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(ba) of the Electoral Act, where the result of the division is one or more and less than three, the number of members of members to be chosen is the result of the division, rounded using the harmonic mean in accordance with sub-section 48(2AA) of the Electoral Act. Calculations for the harmonic mean are shown in Tables 10 and 11.

6) Pursuant to paragraph 48(2A)(c) of the Electoral Act, in all other cases where there is a remainder greater than one-half of the quota, one more member shall be chosen.

7) Pursuant to sub-section 48(2B) of the Electoral Act, at least one member of the House of Representatives shall be chosen by the Northern Territory.

8.      Calculation of harmonic mean

Pursuant to sub-section 48(2AA) of the Electoral Act, where the result of dividing the ascertained Territory population by the population quota is equal to or greater than the harmonic mean, one more member shall be chosen.

Sub-section 48(2AA) of the Electoral Act sets out calculation of the harmonic mean using the formula:

(2 x Minimum number of members x Minimum number plus 1)

÷

(Minimum number of members + Minimum number plus 1)

where:

• Minimum number of members is the minimum number of members worked out for the Territory when dividing the ascertained population by the population quota.
• Minimum number plus 1 is the result of adding 1 to the minimum number of members worked out for the Territory when dividing the ascertained population by the population quota.

Table 10: Harmonic mean where the division results in between one and two members

Note: The harmonic mean is 1.333 recurring.

Table 11: Harmonic mean where the division results in between two and three members

9.      Information supplied by the Australian Statistician

Table 12: Populations supplied by the Australian Statistician in accordance with section 47 of the Electoral Act

Tom Rogers

Electoral Commissioner

27 July 2023